A ‘sunnier’ outlook

Improved conditions for summer grid reliability

While some regions in the United States could face an elevated risk of energy shortfalls during extreme summer temperatures, a host of forward-looking steps and preventive measures show an improved outlook for electric cooperatives in Oklahoma.

The North American Electric Reliability Corp.’s (NERC) summer grid assessment covers the period from June to September; it evaluates generation resources, transmission adequacy, as well as energy sufficiency to meet projected summer peak demands and operating reserves. In its recent assessment, NERC identified seven areas facing an elevated risk of shortfalls due to rising energy demand, generator retirements, unplanned outages, drought and potential for low wind performance. However, NERC found that delayed retirements of fossil fuel power plants, coupled with new, intermittent energy supply, “have improved the outlook for 2024” compared to earlier reports.

In the current summer assessment, elevated areas of concerns do not include Oklahoma, an improvement from last year when Oklahoma was shown in an elevated risk area of NERC’s seasonal risk assessment map.

“Several SPP member utilities have taken generation off to do maintenance in the spring,” says Gary Roulet, CEO of Anadarko-based Western Farmers Electric Cooperative (WFEC), a generation and transmission cooperative serving 17 co-ops in Oklahoma and four in New Mexico. “The units that have been off for maintenance will be available in the summer. We are implementing changes for the better, enhancing communications and taking proactive measures to safeguard reliability.”

Roulet explained the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) requires member utilities, such as WFEC, to be pre-approved 18 months in advance for preventive unit maintenance. Additionally, member utilities must submit data to SPP that ensures adequate generation and transmission capacity for summer and winter. The data must be approved by SPP to validate adequate resources are operable and in place to meet energy peak demands.

“It is a more strenuous process, but we are learning and adapting with the changing energy landscape,” Roulet says.

This same preemptive approach is observed by most electric utilities nationwide, although regional and seasonal factors vary from region to region.

“Summer temperatures place significant stress in generation and transmission assets,” says Ted Hilmes, CEO of KAMO Power, a Vinita-based generation and transmission cooperative serving nine co-ops in Oklahoma and eight in Missouri. “Our electric systems are always being challenged and improved. KAMO Power has recently completed a number of projects to ensure system capacity and reliability ahead of summer.”

Hilmes added KAMO Power has observed a trend of higher peaks in energy demand during the winter months.

The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), a trade organization that represents more than 900 electric co-ops in the nation, including Oklahoma’s electric cooperatives, expressed ongoing concern over NERC’s warnings.

“This latest report highlights the importance of always-available energy as our nation works to keep the lights on,” says Jim Matheson, NRECA CEO. “That’s particularly true as we look towards a future that depends on electricity to power more of the economy.”

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that power demand will reach record highs in 2024 and 2025, increasing by 2.5% and 3.2% respectively.

“American families and businesses rightfully expect their lights to stay on at a price they can afford,” Matheson says. “Adding more renewable resources to the nation’s energy portfolio can be part of the solution. But since the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine, our country also needs a robust supply of always available energy resources to call on at a moment’s notice.”

Regional Forecast

Southwest Power Pool (SPP): Expected resources are sufficient to meet operating reserve requirements under normal peak-demand and outage scenarios. Above-normal summer peak load and outage conditions could necessitate operating mitigations. Western Farmers Electric Cooperative and Golden Spread Electric Cooperative are part of SPP.

SERC-Central: Expected resources meet operating reserve requirements under assessed scenarios. Probabilistic analysis indicates no risk for resource shortfall. KAMO Power is a part of SERC-Central.