Winter forecast: Co-ops are focused on reliability

The reliability of the grid is in the spotlight as electric utilities across the nation learn lessons from extreme winter weather events, rising energy demand and fuel supply issues. As member-focused and community-driven utilities, reliable power is a priority for Oklahoma’s electric cooperatives.

Recently, the nation’s grid monitor, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), released a winter reliability assessment which revealed that two-thirds of the U.S. faces ‘elevated risk’ of blackouts in extreme winter conditions.

“This forecast again shows that our nation faces looming grid reliability challenges while demand for electricity continues to soar,” said Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), a trade organization that represents more than 900 electric cooperatives nationwide.

In 2021, the life-threatening Winter Storm Uri brought rolling blackouts to portions of Oklahoma. Although brief in nature, rolling blackouts were necessary to prevent the power grid from failing in a critical time when energy demand exceeded supply and reserves. The NERC report warns that “when electricity supplies become constrained, operators can face a simultaneous sharp increase in demand as electric heating systems consume more power in cold temperatures.”

In response to lessons learned, generators are following new cold weather reliability standards set forth by NERC and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

“We have winterized our generation plants, secured firm fuel contracts, firm transmission paths and back-up fuel in case of natural gas supply interruption. We are committed to meeting the needs of our members,” said Ted Hilmes, CEO of KAMO Power, a generation and transmission cooperative based in Vinita, Oklahoma. “If we are not going to accept rolling blackouts as everyday life, reliability has to be brought back to the forefront and has to stay at the forefront.”

NRECA warns the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) power plant proposal amplifies reliability challenges for an already stressed power grid. The proposal would mandate impractical emissions standards for coal and natural gas-fired plants, causing pre-mature closure of always-available generation, such as fossil-fuel plants, and mandating technologies that have not been developed or proven.

“We understand the need to reduce carbon, but we also understand we need to add dispatchable fossil fuel generation. Reliability concerns require us to do both. All fuel sources are important for reliability and affordability,” said Gary Roulet, CEO of Western Farmers Electric Cooperative based in Anadarko, Oklahoma. “We have many long-term power agreements to ensure adequate capacity and reserves for our members.”

Roulet added both coal and natural gas supplies for the upcoming winter season are considerably higher than last winter. Forecast for wind and solar output is more challenging due to the intermittent nature of these resources.

“In the short term, we could be at an increased risk of energy shortfalls, but there’s greater awareness of the issues at hand. More people are listening to the message and hopefully will take steps to fix it in the long term,” Roulet said.

REGIONAL WINTER FORECAST:

Two of three generation and transmission cooperatives that serve Oklahoma’s distribution electric cooperatives, Western Farmers Electric Cooperative and Golden Spread Electric Cooperative, are part of the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), a regional transmission organization. The other generation and transmission electric cooperative, KAMO Power, one of the owners of Associated Electric Cooperative, is a part of the Southeastern Electricity Reliability Council (SERC-Central), a regional reliability organization.

Below are NERC’s assessments for SPP and SERC-Central:

Southwest Power Pool (SPP)

Expected resources meet operating reserve requirements under normal peak-demand scenarios. Above-normal winter peak load and outage conditions could result in the need to employ operating mitigations and energy emergency alerts (EEAs). Load shedding (rolling blackouts) is unlikely but may be needed under wide-area cold weather events.

SERC-Central

Expected resources meet operating reserve requirements under the assessed scenarios. Above-normal winter peak load and outage conditions could result in the need to employ operating mitigations and energy emergency alerts (EEAs). Load shedding (rolling blackouts) is unlikely but may be needed under wide-area cold weather events.

RELIABILITY THREATS:

• Extreme weather events
  • NERC: Over 20% of generating capacity has been forced off-line when freezing temperatures extend over parts of North America that are not typically exposed to such conditions.
• Rising energy demand
  • Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): achieving net-zero economywide emissions by 2050 could require generation capacity to increase by as much as 480 percent compared to what’s in place today.
• Fuel supply issues
  • As always-available generation assets (fossil fuels) are taken offline, they’re being replaced with less capacity, no capacity or capacity that’s intermediate (renewables) and not always available.